With 1 week left to go in the conference tournaments, and only 1 week away from Selection Sunday, I'm going to break down the tournament for you and where it stands right now.
CHA and Atlantic Hockey
I don't want to dwell on these useless conferences, but they need mentioning. In the CHA, Niagra won the automatic bid with a 3-2 win over Bemidji State. In the AH, Air Force finished a solid season and won their 3rd straight conference title with a 5-4 double-OT win over Mercyhurst. Niagra does have the advantage over Air Force due to a better PairWise ranking, so the Purple Eagles will avoid the #1 overall team in the tournament.
ECACHL
Locks: None
Should be In: Clarkson
Bubble: Harvard, Princeton
Clarkson 21-12-4 PWR: 9t
Colgate essentially fucked the bubble pulling off the upset of Clarkson and making the automatic bid out of the ECAC up for grabs. Clarkson should be safe, but they aren't a lock. The Golden Knights are tied for 9th, but they are the lower end of that tie (with MSU, who also was upset Sunday). They would have to somehow drop to 14th to be in trouble, and that just isn't very likely. Of all the teams that aren't locks, Clarkson is the best bet to get in.
Harvard 16-12-4 PWR: 15
Harvard is still has work to do before they can keep their season alive. They will square off with Cornell on Friday night. The Crimson are in the position where they must win the ECAC's automatic bid if they want to advance.
Princeton 19-13-0 PWR 16t
Who would have ever though that we would be talking about the Tigers as a possible NCAA tournament team? Well we are. Princeton is the highest seed left in the ECAC tournament with Clarkson eliminated. The Tigers will get Colgate next, which should be an easy win (just don't tell Clarkson that). But, like Harvard, Princeton needs to win the conference title to get in. The bubble is just to tight for them to get an at-large bid.
Hockey East
Locks: New Hampshire, Boston College
Should get In: None
Bubble: Vermont, Boston University
Vermont 16-14-7 PWR: 16t
The Catamounts know they are close....they just need to win the Hockey East title. After a very rocky start to their season, UVM has turned it around. They have an elimination game with BU in teh Hockey East semis. The winner gets a shot at the UNH-BC winner Saturday night at the Garden.
Boston University 19-16-4 PWR: 18t
Don't ask me how, but BU won today over UMass-Lowell....and their PWR ranking dropped. That's bad news for the Terriers. They must win HE to get in at this point. UVM stands in their way, and if they can get by the Catamounts, BU doesn't compare favorably to UNH OR BC. The Terriers have a combined 0-6-1 record agains the 2 schools this season.
CCHA
Locks: Michigan, Miami, Michigan State
Should get In: Notre Dame
Bubble: None
Notre Dame 24-13-4 PWR: 12
The Fighting Irish are all but assured a spot. With Minnesota State's and Wisconsin's season already over, no one is nipping at the Irish's heals. BUT, they aren't assured anything yet. If BU or UVM pulls the upset and gets an auto-bid AND if Northern Michigan pulls an even bigger upset and gets the auto-bid from CCHA, Notre Dame will be in serious trouble. Other than that, they should be a lock.
WCHA
Locks: Colorado College, North Dakota, Denver, St Cloud State, Minnesota
Should get In: None
Bubble: Minnesota State, Wisconsin
Minnesota State 19-16-4 PWR: 13t
Basically, at this point, it's going to be Minnesota State or Wisconsin getting the final at-large bid. The Mavericks have the edge in RPI, but that might not be enough. Minnesota State had a completely heartbreaking weekend against the Minnesota Golden Gophers. The Mavs squeaked out a 1-0 double overtime win Friday night, only to watch the best of 3 series slip away 2-1 and 3-2 with all 3 games going to double overtime. That's a lot of hockey. Now the Mavericks need a little bit of luck because they don't control their own fate at all.
Wisconsin 15-16-7 PWR: 13t
The Badgers might feel the repercussions of the Colgate upset. Clarkson not winning the automatic bid from the ECAC essentially takes away one bubble spot...and Wisconsin is sitting in that spot right now. The Badgers are sub-.500 AND would lose the direct comparison to Minnesota State. However, if things break a certain way, Wisconsin could get in...maybe. But it's not looking good.
So that's where we stand heading into the final weekend of college hockey before the NCAA tournament is announced. Next round of games is Thursday night with Minnesota and St Cloud State playing an elimination game for the right to play Colorado College. Then it's the CCHA, ECAC, HE, and WCHA semis on Friday and championships on Saturday.
And if you were curious, Boston College plays New Hampshire Friday night at 5:00pm.
